Carlos Zambrano No Hitter: For Real?
Carlos Zambrano of the Cubbies throw an incredible one-walk no hitter against the Houston Astros tonight. It was a truly masterful performance, minus a hit batter.
Being the incredible strikeout master that he is, this doesn’t surprise me one bit. His numbers on the season are pretty good: a 3.58 ERA, 13-5 record, and a 117-64 K/BB ratio. Batters are hitting .250 against him and he has a modest 1.31 WHIP.
But is his stellar performance a testament to his skill, or to his luck? Let’s take a look at Zambrano’s history and try to judge his outing.
After four dominant seasons from 2003-2006, Zambrano’s skills took a significant dip in 2007, averaging almost two fewer strikeouts per 9 innings and walking around 4 batters per 9 innings.
He’s getting worse.
This season, Zambrano is averaging six strikeouts per 9 innings. The good news is that his control has improved a fair amount, with 3 batters walked per 9 innings, though he has clearly taken off a bit of his stuff to do so.
At the mere age of 27, this guy is already looking a bit burnt out. In the past five seasons, Zambrano has thrown more than 209 2/3 innings in every one of them.
Lately, he has been battling elbow tendinitis, and this is a minor issue compared to the injuries he could face if he continues pitching at this rate. Despite this strong performance, his outings before this one were very poor: in August, he posted a 7.43 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP: numbers that had many fantasy owners desperately jumping ship.
His strikeout to walk ratio in August was also well below average, around 1.2. June was almost equally as bad, with a K/BB ratio of around 1.1.
Fantasy owners may go out and draft Zambrano in drafts in the mid-rounds, but his profile screams for you to stay away. With a rising ERA, lowering K/BB ratio, and inconsistent performances, you’re best off leaving him for another owner when you go to draft next year.
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