Ervin Santana goes to the mound for LAA today against the Red Sox, and he has simply broken out.  In September and October, he posted K/BB ratios of 8.0 and 7.8, respectively.  In fact, these two months were his strongest statistical months, despite mediocre surface numbers in September.

Daisuke Matsuzaka is going to counter LAA for Boston today, but there are several warning signs on why you shouldn’t go with him.  Despite incredible surface stats, Matsuzaka walks way too many batters to be a reliable option for Boston in the long term.  No pitcher averaging 4.6 walks per 9 innings will find continued success in the league.  Matsuzaka is a deceptive pitcher who has good skills, but I would stay far, far away from him in 2009 drafts.

Scott Kazmir will be pitching for the Rays today against the White Sox, and there are some major warning signs in his skill set as well.  He had good statistical months in June and July, but has walked a high amount of batters in August and September (around 5-6 walks per 9 innings!).  This is a major warning sign that Kazmir may be burnt out, and despite being the favorite in today’s game, you have to love CWS’s chances.

Mark Buehrle takes the mound for the White Sox today, and before you dismiss him as “just another average veteran,” take a closer look at his surface stats.  Buehrle has posted K/BB ratios of 3+ over the past four months, after starting the season’s first three months with a K/BB ratio of 1.6.  Buehrle is no spring chicken, coming in at the ripe age of 29, but he has demonstrated significant skill growth.

With power around the area in flux, I decided to post today regarding who has delivered in the home runs category for fantasy owners.  Let’s take a look at some of the big time power sources from the past thirty days.

POWER ON:

Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies.  Yeah, this is no big surprise.  Howard has smacked 12 dingers in the past thirty days, and his power has been huge for the Phillies playoff push.  Even more of a surprise, however, is his incredible batting average and on-base percentage.  He is batting .324 (.411 OBP), and his batting average on the season has risen to .249.  Keep this power and average surge in mind for next season.  He could be severely undervalued in drafts.

Carlos Delgado, New York Mets.  With ten home runs in the past 30 days, Delgado has really turned it on in September.  Delgado had some trouble getting going early on in the season, but his second half power surge this late in the season proves that he is not at replacement level (yet).  The guy isn’t getting any younger, so wait on him in next years drafts and see if you can get him at a good value.

Power Off:

Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers.  By far and away my favorite MLB player, Hamilton has really struggled from a power standpoint as of late.  Hitting only three home runs in the past month hasn’t helped the Rangers one bit.  His batting average (.303) and OBP (.389) have stayed high however, so he hasn’t exactly gone “cold.”

He has hit balls almost the same way the entire season, so there isn’t a massive change in his approach (42-26-33 Ground Ball/Line Drive/Fly Ball percentage in Sept.).  Hamilton is a young, elite player, and should be drafted in the first round of drafts next season.

Lance Berkman, Houston Astros.  Like Hamilton, Berkman has only hit three home runs in the past month.  He has gone ice cold when his team has needed him the most, batting .163 in the past fourteen games.  It seems to have gotten to his head too, as the stats look like he is overcompensating for his power outage (29-26-46 GB/LD//FB percentage in Sept.).

Berkman needs to relax at the plate, and his power and batting average will rise again.  We’re looking at an incredible fantasy player here, so it’s only a matter of time before he rebounds.  He will have to hit very well, very soon, if the Astros want to capitalize on their slim wildcard chances.

Which players have surprised you with their power output this year?

Being the incredible strikeout master that he is, this doesn’t surprise me one bit.  His numbers on the season are pretty good: a 3.58 ERA, 13-5 record, and a 117-64 K/BB ratio.  Batters are hitting .250 against him and he has a modest 1.31 WHIP.

But is his stellar performance a testament to his skill, or to his luck?  Let’s take a look at Zambrano’s history and try to judge his outing.

After four dominant seasons from 2003-2006, Zambrano’s skills took a significant dip in 2007, averaging almost two fewer strikeouts per 9 innings and walking around 4 batters per 9 innings.

He’s getting worse.

This season, Zambrano is averaging six strikeouts per 9 innings.  The good news is that his control has improved a fair amount, with 3 batters walked per 9 innings, though he has clearly taken off a bit of his stuff to do so.

At the mere age of 27, this guy is already looking a bit burnt out.  In the past five seasons, Zambrano has thrown more than 209 2/3 innings in every one of them.

Lately, he has been battling elbow tendinitis, and this is a minor issue compared to the injuries he could face if he continues pitching at this rate.  Despite this strong performance, his outings before this one were very poor: in August, he posted a 7.43 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP: numbers that had many fantasy owners desperately jumping ship.

His strikeout to walk ratio in August was also well below average, around 1.2.  June was almost equally as bad, with a K/BB ratio of around 1.1.

Fantasy owners may go out and draft Zambrano in drafts in the mid-rounds, but his profile screams for you to stay away.  With a rising ERA, lowering K/BB ratio, and inconsistent performances, you’re best off leaving him for another owner when you go to draft next year.

Okay fine, you did win 14 or more games from 2004-2006.  Despite average strikeout numbers, you were a back end fantasy pitcher who made solid contributions every now and then.

Then you go get injured, and you spend almost the entire month of August 2007 in the minors.  Come back up, make four relief appearances out of the bullpen.

Seriously, Cliff Lee has been nothing short of spectacular this season.  A once low-end fantasy pitcher has turned into perhaps the best pitcher in the game.  And a solid look at his statistics doesn’t lead me to believe that any of what he has done this season is possible.

22-2.  2.36 ERA.  4 complete games.  2 shutouts.  157 strikeouts to 28 walks.

Putting his accomplishments in even more perspective, he has accounted for 22 of the teams 72 wins.  30%!  If Lee had not been in the rotation this year for the Indians, we could be talking about a team worse than the Kansas City Royals, who are currently last in the AL Central with a 62-84 record.

Talk about a contribution!

So what does this mean for Lee in 2009?  Man, he has had a career season this year, but I still am incredibly skeptical of the guy.  Skills like he has demonstrated simply don’t come out of nowhere.  Cliff Lee will be taken very high in next years drafts, and he won’t be worth the selection.

Ever remember of a guy named Esteban Loaiza, and his career year with the White Sox at age 31?  21-9 record, 2.90 ERA, 207:56 K/BB ratio?  It was a fluke season in the middle of a journeyman’s career.

Forget Cliff Lee for next year…if he can follow up with another strong year, maybe it’s time to reconsider his value.  I’m not buying.

1. Ryan Howard (PHI) - 189 K

2. Mark Reynolds (ARI) - 183 K

3. Jack Cust (OAK) - 176 K

4. Dan Uggla (FLA) - 152 K

5. Chris B. Young (ARI) - 151 K

6. Carlos Pena (TB) - 148 K

7. Adam Dunn (ARI) - 146 K

Best Power Hitter: This group is mostly made up of power hitters, but Ryan Howard is by far the best power hitter here.  He currently leads the majors with 43 home runs, and he has delivered in the runs and RBI categories for owners as well.

Best Batting Eye: Believe it or not, but Arizona’s Adam Dunn has the best batting eye out of this entire group.  His on base percentage is at a stunning .389 despite only batting .240.  Dunn is often overlooked in fantasy because he has gained an (unfair) reputation for high strikeouts.  If this is the case, pick Dunn up in a mid round and enjoy the nice power and RBI production he will provide for your team.  His skill set looks eerily similar to that of Ryan Howard.

Best Speed: Who says that strikeout hitters can’t steal bases at will?  Arizona’s Chris B. Young is the best speed option out of this group.  A closer look at his numbers shows that Young is dangerously close to replacement level: his OBP (.309) is very low when compared to his true batting average (.246).  It’s also true that his success on the basepaths has been limited (12 steals and 5 caught stealing).  Unless he makes major strides in winter league, don’t bother rostering him for next season.  By the way, his teammate, Mark Reynolds, has ten stolen bases on the season.

Strikeout hitters tend to go undervalued in fantasy baseball, so don’t overlook them in next year’s drafts!

Credit: Sister72, Flickr

I wanted to take some time away from the fantasy baseball game today to reflect on September 11, 2001 and how it changed our world forever.  I want to extend my best wishes for those who are still struggling with the loss of loved ones, children, coworkers, friends, neighbors, whoever…from that fateful day.

Living in the DC area, this day has tremendous meaning to me as a person.  I remember that day like it was yesterday, and it sends a chill down my spine.  I remember the horror I felt as I saw kids leave my middle school one by one, parents calling in, and the phones ringing off the hook.  I remember sitting in gym class and watching all of the kids leave and get taken out of school.  What started out as a funny joke among middle schoolers took a turn for the worst as soon as I got home that day, and my eyes were glued to the television that entire afternoon.

Not having any idea what was going on, I remember attempting to ask teachers about why students were leaving, but they gave no answer.  It was hard to focus on schoolwork that day, and the teachers didn’t act the same either.

I thank God every day that I did not lose anyone that I knew in the attacks.  The probability of it happening though, especially living in an area of dense population, was high, and I knew that.  Acts of terrorism are among the worst things that can happen to any country, so a country like the USA to have gotten attacked was a bit of a shock.

We may never understand why those attacks had to happen on that fateful day.  It’s important to remember that even though it happened, we united strong as a country and we all moved on together.  With soldiers abroad fighting a tremendous war, and firefighters and police officers serving our country here at home, we have a lot to be thankful for.  Their contributions have, and will continue to be, significant for the future of this country.

If you would like to add anything to reflect on your rememberance, please feel free to do so.

Catcher: Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants.  Sandoval is one of those “guys who made you go hmmm,” but he has definitely delivered for the Giants.  Hitting in the top part of the Giants lineup, Sandoval is currently on a five-game run streak.  Pick up the guy for the great batting average and small power boost he can provide.

First Base: Mike Jacobs, Florida Marlins.  Okay, so Jacobs hasn’t exactly delivered in terms of the batting average, but he does have more than 30 home runs hit on the season.  Jacobs has been on fire since the start of the month, and he can deliver a nice profit if he is on your waiver wire.

Second Base: Clint Barmes, Colorado Rockies.  Sure, he hit home runs in back to back games, but Barmes has fairly pedestrian numbers on the season.  Colorado is offering him a prime spot in their lineup, as he has been batting at the top of their lineup as of late.  Barmes is a pass in shallow leagues, but he could help you out in deep leagues or leagues that use middle infielders.

Third Base / Shortstop: Brandon Wood, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.  Wood, a former top prospect, has had a multi home run game this month.  He also has a LOT of strikeouts.  Maybe this guy is related to Mark Reynolds.  There is no denying that Wood has a ton of power and projects nicely as a prospect, but he’s not ready yet.  Pass on him.

Outfield: Nelson Cruz, Texas Rangers.  Cruz spent most of the season in AAA, playing that “burnt out prospect” role.  I saw somewhere that he was classified as a “AAAA” player: one that is too good for AAA but too bad for the majors.  Must be a tough life in that role.  Also must be a tough life considering his September statistics with the Rangers: in seven games, he has one hitless and three multi hit.  In addition, he has two home runs and one stolen base.  This guy is money from a statistics standpoint.  If you need the extra power or average boost, look to Cruz to provide that for you.

UPDATE: To follow up on yesterday’s post, I found an interesting video of Billy Wagner crying…Tommy John Surgery ruins lives!  And now Pujols…does it ever end?

Okay, I’ll admit that at times, it can be hard to keep up with my teams AND blogging at the same time.  But fantasy baseball is far superior to fantasy football for many reasons.

First, fantasy baseball takes an incredible amount of strategy, thinking, and analysis.  No successful fantasy baseball owner can beat the game on his/her own.  While the same is also true of fantasy football, most of the strategy and thinking comes at the draft, as well as the Thursday or Friday before the weekend’s games.  Fantasy baseball owners participate in daily management (for the most part), and the 162 game managing simply turns lazy fans off to the fantasy baseball game.

With that added dimension of true strategy and thinking, fantasy baseball owners are rewarded justly for their efforts.  Log in everyday and manage your roster, and you will probably be better off than that owner who hasn’t logged in for the past 130 days.  Most often, this is not true of fantasy football owners.  Some owners can simply draft a team and forget about it, stealing wins and usable players from the owners that really care.

Another benefit to playing fantasy baseball is that there are a LOT of games (NO WAY!).  If you were to turn on your TV and watch MLB baseball every night on ESPN, ESPN2, or any like network, you could probably view every MLB team at least once.  The same cannot be said of the NFL: though there are many different games on your local networks, many fans won’t get the opportunity to see several NFL teams play at all over the course of a season.

With daily scores, come daily surprises and lots of great plays.  This has more to do about baseball in general than fantasy baseball, but it is really great when you can turn on your television and get online to find new scores and news essentially every day.  Over the course of a normal NFL week, many news reports focus on previews and reviews, as well as the occasional Chad Ocho Cinco story or injury report.

Even though the game may be tougher, fantasy baseball easily trumps fantasy football as the better fantasy game.  Though fantasy football can provide bursts of excitement on Sunday afternoons and Monday nights, fantasy baseball is an exciting game that will really help you grow in your love for the national pastime.

According to SNY, Billy Wagner will be missing the rest of 2008 and possibly all of 2009 after tearing his flexor pronator and MCL in his left elbow.  Sounds like some serious stuff.  At the age of 37, I doubt that he’ll have much value, even if he does return in 2009 or Spring Training 2010.

Owners who drafted the solid Wagner were rewarded with a nice, productive season.  In 47 innings pitched, Wagner saved 27 out of 34 total opportunities and posted a nice 2.30 ERA.  He stepped up as the clear leader of the Mets bullpen, and a lot has to be said for that.  His 52-10 K/BB ratio was even more impressive.

With Wagner out of the picture, Mets fans have to be turning their attention to the Angels’ Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez, who could get some big bucks from NYM to be their next closer.  As you may know, K-Rod is currently on track to break the all-time single season saves record with the Angels.  Luis Ayala will probably not be able to sustain the pace that he has been going at, and K-Rod seems like a logical target.

Francisco Rodriguez has posted the highest strikeouts/9 innings and lowest walks/9 innings ratios in his career this season.  It has never been more apparent that this guy is at the absolute top of his game.  Durability has to come into question, but Rodriguez has certainly got the job done.  If K-Rod becomes a Met next season, he will be the first or second closer drafted.

Streaming starters starts out with understanding what is valuable in fantasy baseball.  As you may or may not know, a good batting lineup in fantasy baseball is much more valuable than a good pitching staff, at least when you come out of your draft.  One key principle to remember is that good pitching is ALWAYS available on your waiver wire.  Knowing this, drafting solid hitting in the first six-twelve rounds of your draft is crucial (more on that in a future post).  Streaming starters is taking advantage of this fact, and constantly moving starting pitching in and out of your lineup to improve in the pitching rotisserie categories.

First, open up your league and note an important rule: are there inning maximums or minimums in your league?  If your league has innings maximums, there is a limit to how you can carry out this strategy.  If there is no limit, then you are definitely in business.  In addition, look to see if there is a “maximum roster moves” limit in your league.

After noting any innings minimums or maximums, go to your waiver wire and look at the quality of the starting pitchers available.  Sort starting pitchers by the ratios (ERA, WHIP) if you can set the filters to a specific number of innings pitched.  If not, you can sort starters by strikeouts.

Compare the pitchers available by a general overlook of the K-BB ratio.  Are there some starters out there that have a good K-BB ratio?  Make a note of these pitchers, only looking at the statistics from the entire current season.

Now, go and sort the pitchers by last three-five start statistics.   Look at the pitchers that have pitched well as of late and make a note of these pitchers as well.  Are their K-BB ratios at a good level?  A 3-1 K/BB ratio is an ideal ratio. 

Finally, return to your roster and identify the lowest level pitchers on your squad.  Two to three mid-tier starting pitchers are a good number for streaming, but you can adjust and use more or less, depending on your needs.

Take a look at the probable pitchers for the next two or three days.  Identify good values according to the list you made, or by recent statistics.  Do not consider the team the prospective streamed starter is playing against.  Instead, look at the opposing pitcher, and the prospective streamed starter’s recent statistics.  If the K-BB ratio is solid, consider rostering that pitcher in place of one of your mid-tier pitchers on your team.

In a separate post, I will explain why the opposing team does not matter.  Simply put, any starting pitcher can beat any opponent on any given night.

If you have any questions regarding this technique, please feel free to email me or leave a comment.  Your comments are welcome anyway, so please leave one if you have an opinion on this post!